Castro's future to be determined in Cuba election

Castro's future to be determined in Cuba election

Updated Sun. Jan. 20 2008 4:39 PM ET

Source: CTV.ca News

The result of Sunday's vote in Cuba will be the first step in determining Fidel Castro's future influence over the country.

Castro has not been seen in public for nearly 18 months and has said that he is too sick to campaign. He ceded power to his younger brother in 2006, following emergency intestinal surgery.

The 81-year-old is however standing for re-election in parliamentary polls.

More than eight million voters are being asked to back Castro in the election for Cuba's legislature, the National Assembly. A 90 per cent turnout is expected.

Castro bowed out of campaigning on Wednesday saying in an essay published in state-run media that he was not healthy enough to speak to the masses.

"I am not physically able to speak directly to the citizens of the municipality where I was nominated for our elections," he wrote.

In recent columns, Castro has said that he does not intend to cling to power.

Voting started on Sunday at 6:00 a.m. A council will be elected amongst the assembly in February, which will then elect a president. It is then that Castro's official status will be determined.

In an interview with CTV Newsnet, Ken Frankel, director of the Canadian Foundation for the Americas said that the result of the council vote may not be relevant to Castro.

"Whether or not he's elected president at the end of February, which is somewhat doubtful, is somewhat academic at this point because when he handed over the power to his brother Raul in July a year and a half ago, the transition had begun," he said.

"It looks like he's being phased out, or certainly his influence is a little bit waning," Frankel said.

Although he no longer runs the day-to-day government, Castro still heads Cuba's governing body. His re-election to parliament is necessary to retain that position.

Ricardo Alarcon, the National Assembly speaker, is one of Castro's expected successors should the president step down and his brother not be interested in the position.

Alarcon was the country's ambassador to the U.S. for 10 years and has expressed interest in being president.

People at the polling station started clapping when Alarcon arrived to vote on Sunday morning.

CTV's Lisa LaFlamme reported from Havana that the voting, which is all done in neighbourhoods, is not typical of most Latin American countries.

Laflamme told Newsnet that "if this were a referendum on (Castro's) popularity, he's got a lock on it."

Democracy questioned

Any citizen is allowed to run in parliamentary elections but Cuba's one-party policy has long been chided for falling short of the democratic process.

While candidates aren't required to be a member of the party, it's unlikely anyone but a card-carrying comrade of the Partido Comunista de Cuba would assume a leadership role.

Democracy in Cuba generally occurs from the grassroots up, as demonstrated in Cuba's Candidates' Commission's latest numbers.

According to Amarelis Perez, a spokesperson with the candidates' commission, 28 per cent of candidates running in the socialist republic are "workers or peasants" and 43 per cent are women. Only 37 per cent of those running for one of the 614 seats in parliament are incumbents.

Officials expect a high voter turnout on Sunday, estimating at least 90 per cent of Cuba's eligible voters will line up at the polls.

"Every revolutionary has an obligation to vote," Oramis Mirabal, a 26-year-old in Old Havana told The Associated Press, adding that he felt "very represented" by Cuban legislators.

However, many Cubans quietly complain about the country's electoral system.

Oscar Espinosa Chepe, a dissident who was sentenced to 20 years in prison during a crackdown in 2003, said high voter turnout creates the impression of "false unanimity."

Espinosa Chepe, who was freed on medical parole, called Sunday's candidates "carefully chosen, loyal, star-lovers" who put Communist leaders and the party above all else.

Voters are given a list of candidates and are strongly urged to check a single box supporting every name on the ballot. If voters choose not to support certain candidates over others, they can leave boxes blank while marking others.

Candidates who fail to get 50 per cent of the total votes lose, and a special commission would meet to nominate a replacement. However, National Assembly officials said there has not been a need for a commission since Cuba began electing the National Assembly in 1993.

Even extremely disgruntled voters usually show up at the polls as pro-government neighbourhood-watch committees could choose not to support bids for employment, housing or official approval after the election.